Jai Harshini Sivasankar, First Place Winner of Grade 6-8 Category, EcoEdu x GoSTEM Climate Change Essay Competition

As a kid, I have always waited for Groundhog Day, when my entire school became so obsessed with one question, did the groundhog come out to see the sunlight? In later years I found it's not just me but also scientists, even though it's a myth they were happily delving into the world of innocence, for a different reason: because of Climate Change, so now, the bigger question for a kid is - did Groundhogs lose their powers? Their power to predict the weather before meteorologists?

Let's burrow in deeper: According to EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the average weather temperature for June 2024 was higher than any June on record, and Jul 22, 2024 had the hottest weather since 1940, and we are causing more than 95% of these changes, like ocean fluctuations, and in 2023, the average concentration of CO2 was 419.3 ppm(parts per million)- the highest in human history, with more than 50% higher than pre-industrial levels of CO2. Whether it's 150 years of climate data where records stretch back to 1880 or Climate models of 2040 which predict more heat wave disasters, scientists are conclusive now than before of this worrying trend which will cause more numbers of hospitalizations and deaths, particularly among older people and those with bad health conditions. So let us ignore the valiant and cocky few who still deny climate change as hoaxes or old timers who don't want to see the new normal.

While the majority agree that Climate Change is caused by humans, scientists have looked at past climate changes to understand the factors that can cause the planet to warm or cool. The important factors are changes in solar energy, ocean circulation, volcanic activity, and the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The top three have differed a bit over the last few centuries and they have quite likely had little effect on climate, mostly before 1950. But they cannot account for the planet’s speedy rise in temperature, especially in the second half of the 20th century, when solar output actually declined and volcanic eruptions exerted a cooling effect. That warming is best explained by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Greenhouse gases have a powerful impact on climate. Since the Industrial Revolution, humans have been releasing more of them into the atmosphere, primarily by extracting and burning fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas, which releases carbon dioxide in the air.

Can we stall or even reverse the effects of climate change? While it sounds close to impossible, it can be done by slowing the rate and limiting the amount of global warming by lowering the human release of heat-trapping gasses and soot(“black carbon”)in the atmosphere. If all human emissions of heat-trapping gasses were to halt today, Earth’s temperature would continue to rise for a few decades as ocean currents bring excess heat stored in the deep ocean back to the surface. Once this excess heat radiated out to space, Earth’s temperature would stabilize. Experts think the extra warming from this “invisible” heat is unlikely to exceed 0.9° Fahrenheit (0.5°Celsius). With no further human influence, natural processes would begin to slowly remove the excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and global temperatures would gradually begin to decline.

The NAS report titled Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change explained policies that could be adopted to slow or even reverse global warming. According to the report, "Meeting internationally discussed targets for decreasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and associated increases in global average temperatures will require a major departure from business as usual in how the world uses and produces energy."Transitioning to energy sources that do not emit greenhouse gasses, such as solar, wind, biofuels, and nuclear, can slow the pace of climate change, though these energy sources face challenges ranging from manufacturing capacity to debates about where to install these facilities.

Alternate methods to slow or reduce global warming have been proposed that are, collectively, known as "climate engineering" or "geoengineering." Some of these geoengineering proposals involve cooling Earth's surface by injecting reflective particles into the upper atmosphere to scatter and reflect sunlight back to space. Other proposals involve seeding the oceans with iron to stimulate large-scale phytoplankton blooms, thereby drawing down carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere through photosynthesis. Such methods could work, in principle, but many climate scientists oppose undertaking geoengineering until we have a much better understanding of the possible side effects, like impacting the ocean’s ecosystem Additionally, in stratospheric sulfide injection. Ozone depletion: a potential side effect of sulfur aerosols; these concerns have been supported by modeling, and according to TN.gov, because of ozone depletion, can cause increased amounts of UV radiation to reach the Earth which can lead to more cases of skin cancer, cataracts, and impaired immune systems. Too much exposure to UV is believed to be contributing to the increase in melanoma, the most fatal of all skin cancers and there are unresolved legal and ethical issues surrounding geoengineering. With these concerns, the American Meteorological Society published a position paper (readopted in January 2013) in which it said: "...research to date has not determined whether there are large-scale geoengineering approaches that would produce significant benefits, or whether those benefits would substantially outweigh the detriments. Indeed, geoengineering must be viewed with caution because manipulating the Earth system has considerable potential to trigger adverse and unpredictable consequences."

Can we hope or is there any hope for a future species to thrive on this planet? Well, Transportation accounts for the largest portion [28%] of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. This evidence proves that if we have any hope of lowering climate change, we need to focus on transportation. This is still a glimmer of hope and here are a couple of examples- Mega projects such as the one proposed by researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tsinghua University, Chinese Academy of Geosciences, and Columbia University who have proposed installing 52 billion solar panels covering American highway network global highways covered with solar panels. This alone can satisfy 60% of global energy consumption with an estimated “17,578 TWh” of electricity. This could offset up to 28% of global carbon emissions and reduce road accident incidences by up to 11% as per The researcher's publication “Roofing Highways With Solar Panels Substantially Reduces Carbon Emissions and Traffic Losses” in Earth’s Future magazine.

We haven't heard this in science fiction yet but Germany is constructing a new wireless EV charging road where EV vehicles charge dynamically while they are moving on electrified roads. This ambitious project is undertaken by a company named Electreon, which has partnerships with the government, car manufacturers, and infrastructure companies. It sounds promising because this reduces battery capacity needs, eliminates range anxiety, and charges EVs quickly and safely. Similar innovations are undertaken in various countries which makes this a biologically safer option than geoengineering.

The climate emergency remains urgent and imminent, but it also remains solvable. These are just a few of the technological innovations giving us hope to go beyond simply averting catastrophe to building a world that’s more livable. New possibilities, ideas, and technologies continue to emerge; and there should be a global partnership in testing approaches, refined, and then deployed to combat global warming. With all these new projects and initiatives, we, as a global community, can work together to fight climate change, for the betterment of humanity. So speaking of groundhogs, it looks like they did not lose their powers to predict, we humans in the name of innovation have quadrupled carbon emission and just taken it away from them. Now it's our turn to give it back.

Image courtesy of Andia/Getty Images

Image courtesy of Solar geoengineering non-use agreement